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Coy B is in the process of obtaining a licence to use a promising renewable energy technology which it plans to incorporate within a suite of such technologies for deployment across North America. It wanted to develop a technology valuation model to underpin its negotiations with the technology owner.

Coy B engaged Wingarra BMI to design and construct a model which can be used for this purpose. In the course of this assignment, the company elected to broaden the brief so that the model could be used as a management and budgeting tool on an ongoing basis. It also wanted to be able to use it for the purpose of raising debt and/or equity funding to finance its commercialisation plans.

Wingarra BMI designed and constructed an integrated model which links a sophisticated power output calculator with a very detailed 5-year financial projection model. The model also incorporates an extrapolation methodology which projects performance out to 20 years for the purpose of calculating generation costs per kWh and capital costs per mW installed capacity.

The company can now use the power output calculator to model up to 100 separate deployment sites, the technical variables for which can be set on a site-by-site basis. It also allows for up to 20 equipment configuration specifications, which can then also be allocated and tested on a site-by-site basis.

The outputs from the power output calculator – kWh on a month-by-month, site-by-site basis - form one of the primary inputs to the financial projection model. This model also allows for site-by-site setting of revenue tariffs (including peak/off-peak allocations) and operating expenses, and allows for a configuration-by-configuration modelling of all generation equipment capital costs (planning and approval, site analysis, construction, installation, testing, etc).

Among the specific variables integrated within this model for testing are the following:

Project parameters:

• Site definition – two zones, each with up to 50 sites to be specified
• Month planning/approval process starts (1 to 60)
• Duration of planning/approval process (months)

Generation unit configuration parameters (each variable separately specified for each site):

• Equipment definition – up to 20 separate configurations
• Aperture – sq m
• Equipment efficiency 1 - %
• Equipment efficiency 2 - %
• Equipment efficiency 3 - %
• Mechanical enhancement effect – times
• Interference power loss - %
• Governed speed (turbine) – m/sec

Site parameters (each variable separately specified for each site):

• Fluid density – kg/cu m
• No of generation units
• Equipment configuration code – specifies which of the 20 equipment configurations to be operated at each site
• Aperture, equipment efficiency 1, equipment efficiency 2, equipment efficiency 3, mechanical enhancement effect, interference power loss and governed speed are all functions of equipment configuration selection
• Average power density factor – engineering assessment of power degradation below theoretical maximum resulting from environmental factors
• Flow rates – m/sec – month-by-month across five year time horizon

Revenue parameters:

• Ave wholesale tariff – peak and off-peak - month-by-month on yearly basis
• Peak/off-peak allocation %age - month-by-month on yearly basis
• Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) revenue – year-by-year

Direct cost parameters - capital:

• Depreciation rates (DV) – zone-by-zone basis
• Planning and approval costs – separate categories for feasibility studies, project development and project engineering – site basis
• Equipment and installation costs – separate categories for costs for each unit in a multi-unit stack (energy generation equipment, installation, automated controls), other costs not related to no of units – equipment type basis

Direct cost parameters - recurrent:

• Up to 15 individual categories – site basis, many based on %age of capital, but some independently set

 

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Note: model run on dummy data for screenshots.

Coy B inputs 1	Coy B inputs 2
Coy B inputs 3	Coy B inputs 4
Coy B special outputs 1	Coy B special outputs 2

 

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